The Demographic Cliff
We have reached the demographic cliff. For the past few years educators and demographers have been writing and speaking on the looming demographic cliff. What is it?
The term refers to the steep decline in traditional-age students projected to start college beginning in 2026.[1] The content has been covered among those in higher education for obvious reasons. They have been worried about it, and that is understandable.
The Largest Graduating Class in American History
The high school graduating class of 2025 is the largest in the history of the United States. We have just collectively experienced a record-setting moment. Not only is it the largest in our nation’s history, but it is also the most diverse. After next year, the number of American school kids finishing high school will go down every year for the foreseeable future.[2]
Why is this? In the year 2007 there were more births in America than ever. At more than 4.3 million, the numbers surpassed the baby boom of 1957.[3] Researchers have gathered data attempting to define why this great bubble occurred and why the current decline has begun. As with any demographic data structure, there are various reasons. These include the financial collapse of 2008, historical immigration patterns, and more.
When the birth increases happened, it was interesting, but now in 2025 it is more than just something of interest. This bump and subsequent decline impacts university admissions (and eventually college and university existence), workforce numbers, taxpayer numbers, and the needed caregiver pool for an aging older generation. This is an issue in the United States now and one that nations such as Japan and China have been facing for years.
For higher education right now, the cliff is no longer looming. It is here. Work among admissions offices will increase simply to keep student numbers consistent. Larger universities will not be impacted as quickly, but small, private colleges will notice the changing pool immediately and competition for the registration numbers and dollars will increase.
A Theological Issue
Demographic studies are interesting, but since there is no place where a biblical worldview is absent, the wise must ask how what these numbers mean from a theological perspective.
Albert Mohler covered this on his news podcast, “The Briefing” on June 27, 2025, when referencing the demographic report. While demographers focus on the birth rate and seek to define the slowing of it to simply economic factors, Mohler reminds us that there is a larger issue at hand. The command in Genesis to be fruitful and multiply was given to humanity without an expiration date.[4]
With the growth of secular humanism came theories and eventually policies built on fear. The myth of overpopulation gained traction in recent decades. This belief in overpopulation of the planet was predicted by biologist Paul R. Ehrlich and recorded in his book The Population Bomb that was published in 1968.[5] Ehrlich’s book predicted a future of worldwide famine and resource depletion. It was controversial in its day and yet, led to shaping many public attitudes and policies. Now, many have pushed back, of course with 20/20 hindsight, declaring the premise a myth and a message that people and nations will continue to propagate that population growth is the primary issue in the world, without addressing issues of equivalence.[6]
Numerous apocalyptic novels and science fiction stories, television shows, and films added to this myth being taken as fact. I remember watching the original Star Trek television series episode titled “The Mark of Gideon.” The entire premise centered on an overpopulated planet (displayed now quite humorously with about a dozen people in 1960s-era alien costumes moving about in a back room behind Captain Kirk.[7] There were films such as Soylent Green and books like My Petition for More Space and The Minimum Man and others that fed the theme as well.[8]
While the myth may have grown over the decades fueled by fear-based writing, less than clear research hypotheses, and entertaining science fiction, the reality of decline is upon us. Worldviews matter and they are theological.
A Church & Youth Ministry Issue
While we have hit a pinnacle and apparently, we will not have this many high school graduates again (at least not for 18-20 years) what does this mean for the church?
Youth ministry culture exists and many of us experienced some amazing moments during the hey-day of church youth groups in the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s. In our current era of the megachurch and mega-youth group, even though we may lament it, the entertainment culture within the church has and is leaving an impact. While some larger churches may not notice a decline in attendance immediately, eventually “high school graduate recognition Sunday” may have noticeably fewer on stage than in years past.
There are certainly fewer teenagers standing on stage before their church family members when graduation comes than in the past. This may not be necessarily due to a demographic shift, but rather to an evangelistic and discipleship gap. Simply put, there are more teenagers who have never joined the church, have never shifted away from church because they were never in the church family. Sundays are not for gathering with the church to worship, but for championship games in travel ball tournaments, the second day on the two-day theme park pass, or even to work, play, or just hang out. Some churches have responded by trying to turn another day of the week into “church day” just to catch some of those who are too busy on Sunday. Honorable, I guess, but misguided and over time a mistake.
Many church members wax nostalgically about the days of old. Some even declare the teenage years a time simply to have fun. Fun is great. I like fun, but let’s be honest, if life is all about having fun all the time we end up with a population that values theme parks, beaches, games, and lack of commitment to things that matter more than the vital things of life. Eventually, the church will try to become a producer of entertainment where each weekly gathering must “out do” the previous in production value. We have all seen it and simply put, it’s terrible. If not for these attempts, Instagram accounts like “Pastors with Props” would have no posts. Thus, the church becomes the butt of jokes.
As the demographics shift, more fluff is not the answer.
No longer does the “Coke and a joke” youth ministry work (and that’s a good thing.) The “cool youth pastor” is clearly an oxymoron. A theology of youth is needed, now more than ever. The church exists within human culture, and we must determine how to best present the message of the gospel within the cultural soup in which it exists. When it comes to youth (teenagers), to what extent is the ministry of the church shaped by that cultural soup, and to what is it shaped by biblical teaching?[9]
The demographic cliff is here, but the church is not to lament the inability to reach people who do not actually exist. The focus is on those who do exist–those teenagers and young adults who are here and in great need of a Savior. Will the demographic shift change again? Likely, but I am no futurist. I just believe that we live today with the calling to engage a lost and dying world with the life-changing gospel of Jesus Christ. Certainly, false teaching and myth-laden pseudo-science has fueled our current culture of death (abortion, IVF baby abandonment in frozen storage, increased sales of mifepristone, medically assisted suicide, eugenics, etc.) to our great shame. Even the attempt at a higher level of thinking leading some to proudly declare that they will not bring a child into this world due to all its problems, is simply the Enemy’s lie in a different package.
Thus, we pray. We talk. We preach. We teach. All this for the glory of God. Not to address a demographic decline, but to address spiritual death.
This may be the smallest high school graduation class ever. We may be experiencing increased demographic gravity as we fall over this cliff. We may lament the lack of image-bearers for the days ahead. Yet, even with all this information flooding our minds today, God remains sovereign. May our realization of the cultural soup we swim in solidify our understanding and need for a biblical worldview.
In the meantime, let’s seek to reach the next generation, for they have not been created by God to be the church of tomorrow, but of today.
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[1] Vyse, Graham. “What Is the Demographic Cliff?” What Is the Demographic Cliff?, The Chronicle of Higher Education, 3 Mar. 2025, www.chronicle.com/special-projects/the-different-voices-of-student-success/becoming-a-student-centric-institution/what-is-the-demographic-cliff.
[2] Carney, Timothy P. P. “Peak Pomp & Circumstance.” Washington Examiner - Political News and Conservative Analysis About Congress, the President, and the Federal Government, Washington Examiner, 13 June 2025, www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/3439330/high-school-graduates-decrease-us-baby-bust/.
[3] Milivojevic, Elena. “What Demographers Saw Coming: The Largest Graduating Class in U.S. History.” Population Reference Bureau, 10 June 2025, www.prb.org/articles/what-demographers-saw-coming-the-largest-graduating-class-in-u-s-history/.
[4] Mohler, R. Albert, Jr. “Friday, June 27, 2025.” AlbertMohler.Com, 27 June 2025, albertmohler.com/2025/06/27/briefing-6-27-25/.
[5] Ehrlich, Paul R. The Population Bomb. Buccaneer, 2007.
[6] Petersen, Casper Skovgaard. “Dispelling the Myth of Overpopulation.” Farsight, 20 Mar. 2023, farsight.cifs.dk/dispelling-the-myth-of-overpopulation/?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=11805947684&gbraid=0AAAAACGeP1Fa5Q3ANyySRLvjjf596UgLX&gclid=CjwKCAjw4K3DBhBqEiwAYtG_9AJZdf9MaAuhA9-OWqpmuXaUpqDNGEHQ2tQ269yMuT_CUIvJ4uRxQhoCK_kQAvD_BwE.
[7] Roddenberry, Gene, et al. “The Mark of Gideon.” Star Trek, season 3, episode 16, 16 Jan. 1969.
[8] Garnell, Saul. “Science Fiction Novels/Short Stories about Overpopulation.” Science Fiction and Other Suspect Ruminations, 31 Oct. 2020, sciencefictionruminations.com/sci-fi-article-index/sci-fi-novels-about-overpopulation.
[9] Kelly, Paul G. A Biblical Theology of Youth: Why It Matters (Birmingham, AL: YM360, 2024), 21.
